Monday’s 1.09% gain for the S&P 500 was the 19th time that December has started off with a 1%+ up day since 1928 when the index began.  Unfortunately, all of yesterday’s gains and then some have been lost as of early afternoon today.  Below is a quick look at the performance of various asset classes today using our key ETF matrix.  We also include each ETF’s total return since the 9/20 peak for the S&P 500 as well as year-to-date.

As shown, major US index ETFs are down 2%+ across the board, with even more pain coming in the mid-cap and small-cap space.  The S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is getting crushed by 3.56% as we type.

Looking at US sectors, the most pain is being felt in Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and Technology (XLK), with all three down more than 3% on the day.  The one sector that’s higher is Utilities (XLU), which benefits on days like today when risk-free interest rates are falling.  The high-dividend yields of Utilities become more attractive as risk-free yields fall.

Outside of the US, Japan (EWJ) is getting hit the hardest with a drop of 3.23%.  Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) are all down 2.6% or more as well.  Hong Kong (EWH) and India (PIN) are down the least on the day with drops of roughly 90 bps.

The equity asset space is getting crushed today, but commodities and fixed income are performing well.  The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 1.71%, which is its best day since May 29th when it rose more than 2.19%.

Below is a look at the 2018 YTD performance of major commodities.  As shown, natural gas is up 47.2%, which is by far the biggest gainer of the bunch.  Wheat and orange juice are the only other two commodities in the green on the year with gains of 5%+.

While corn and gold are down single-digit percentage points, the remaining five commodities in the chart are down more than 10%.  Silver and copper lead the way lower with declines of 15%+, while coffee is down 14.6%, platinum is down 13.5%, and oil is down 12.1%.

Below are trading range charts for four of key commodities in the chart above — oil, gold, natural gas, and silver.  The green shading in the chart represents between two standard deviations above and below the 50-day moving average.  Moves to the top of this range are considered overbought, while moves to the bottom of the range are considered oversold.

Oil’s sharp decline from its highs a couple months ago has widened out its trading range dramatically, and it’s still trading right near the bottom of its range after a bounce over the last couple of days.  To get back to overbought levels from here, oil needs to rally 50%!

Natural gas, on the other hand, is trading at the top of its trading range after experiencing a dramatic spike higher in November.

For the two precious metals, gold has started to trade positively lately after breaking out of its long-term downtrend with a series of higher lows over the last few months.  The same can’t be said for silver, though, which hasn’t made as positive of a move as gold.

Markets came roaring out of the gates this week, gapping up significantly higher yesterday. Fortunately, as we mentioned in a blog post yesterday, this gap up was all that was needed to lift 10 of the 14 US Index ETFs tracked in our Trend Analyzer tool above their 50-day moving averages.  With the exception of the Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) which is still sitting significantly below its 50-DMA at -2.48%, even those that have not yet moved back above are within one percentage point of retaking the average.  The Nasdaq (QQQ) is by far the closest sitting only 7 basis points below.  Despite this, the overall picture is still not glaringly bullish as the majority of these names remain in longer-term downtrends.  For the S&P 500, 2,800 is the resistance area that everyone is watching.

Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in November using our key ETF matrix.  Along with November total returns, we also include returns since the 9/20 high for the S&P 500 as well as year-to-date.

Both the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Dow 30 (DIA) gained just under 2% in November, while the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) finished in the red.  The Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Communication Services (XLC) sectors were all down in November, while Health Care (XLV) was up huge at +8%.  With gains of 3.8%, Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) were the next best performing sectors behind Health Care.

Outside of the US, the best performing countries were Hong Kong (EWH) and India (PIN) with gains of 8% and 9.8%, respectively.  On the flip side, Mexico (EWW) was the worst performing country with a decline of 4.16%.

The real action in November came in the commodities space.  The broad commodities ETF (DBC) fell 9.85% on the month, which was due to oil’s (USO) dramatic drop of 22.19%.  Natural gas, on the other hand, caught a massive bid and gained 39.78% on the month!  Nat gas is now up 60% on the year.

Treasury ETFs were slightly higher in November as rates pulled back a bit.

Today’s release of the ISM Manufacturing report for November broke a string of back to back declines in the index and easily surpassed expectations.  While economists were forecasting the headline index to come in at a level of 57.5, the actual reading came in at 59.3.

Breadth in this month’s report was pretty much split right down the middle as five categories showed increases, four declined, and one was unchanged.  On a y/y basis, it was less positive.  Although the headline index is higher than it was at this time last year, seven out of ten components are down.  The biggest decliner on a m/m and y/y basis was Prices Paid.  In November, Prices Paid declined from 71.6 down to 60.7, which was the largest m/m decline since June 2012.  For those worried about rising inflation, this month’s decline provides some comfort.

Finally, with the November jobs report coming up Friday, we wanted to note that the employment component of this month’s report increased from 56.8 up to 58.4, indicating another healthy jobs reading for the manufacturing sector at least.  We’ll be paying closer attention, however, to the ISM Services report which will be released on Thursday morning.  The Services sector makes up roughly 80% of the US economy compared to just 20% for the manufacturing sector.

Sales of F-Series trucks from Ford slowed slightly in the month of November relative to the same month last year, even as both months had the same number of industry selling days (25).  Total sales came in at 72,108 compared to 72,769 last year.  For the last three years now, November F-Series sales have been pretty much stuck at the 72K level.   Looking back over time, though, the last three Novembers have been the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best Novembers for sales going all the way back to 1996.  Sales of pickup trucks (specifically at Ford) are often a sign of strength or weakness in the small business and construction sectors, so it’s good to watch these readings for signs of strength of weakness.

With 11 months in the books, total sales of F-Series trucks by Ford now stands at 822K, which is a 1.8% increase from the first 11-months of 2017.  The only two years where sales were stronger through the end of November were 2004 (844K) and 2001 (827K).  Depending on how things shake out in December, this year will likely go down as one of the top three years for Ford F-Series truck sales on record.

Finally, the chart below shows seasonally adjusted monthly F-Series truck sales by Ford.  Similar to overall auto sales in the US, sales appear to have plateaued for the time being.  They aren’t quite rolling over, but they certainly aren’t rising either.