Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/16/25 – Death, Taxes, and New Highs in Gold
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“In seeking truth, you have to get both sides of a story.” – Walter Cronkite
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Trade headlines are weighing on market sentiment this morning as semiconductor stocks are down about 4% in aggregate on the heels of a 6%+ decline in Nvicia (NVDA) due to US government restrictions on the sale of Hopper chips to China. While not having as large of an impact as they have in the past, it’s another indication that uncertainty surrounding trade isn’t going anywhere.
In economic news, Retail Sales were inline with expectations at the headline level but better than expected after stripping out Autos, and February’s readings were also revised higher. On a net basis, this was a strong report as the divergence between hard and soft data continues.
The S&P 500 bounced over 8% from its closing low last week and more than 11% from its intraday low. Despite the rebound, on Monday, the index experienced what technical analysts call a ‘death cross’ where its 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 200-DMA as both have downward slopes.
This was the S&P 500’s first death cross in more than three years (March 2022) and the 25th in its history, dating back to 1928. It’s also the eighth such pattern in the post-financial crisis period, and as shown in the chart below, it followed a nearly 20-year period where there was only one occurrence.
The Closer – Liminal Space, Two Types of Guidance, AI – 4/15/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with commentary regarding the comedown in volatility including a general overview of where markets are (page 1). We then dive into import prices and the latest earnings (page 2) followed by an update on the Empire Manufacturing data released today (page 3). We then finish with a look at the performance of AI stocks (page 4) and where that leaves their valuations (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
NY Fed Shows Weak Demand and Flying Prices
On Tuesday morning, we got the first update on regional manufacturing activity for April with the release of the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline reading came in better than expected, rising from a 15-month low of -20 last month to -8.1 in April. While that marks a second straight month of observed contractionary activity, expectations appear even worse. That index fell an enormous 20.1 points month over month for the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history. That month that was worse: September 2001. Regarding the month-over-month move, September 2001 and March 2020 are the only other months with bigger drops.
In the table below, we include a look at the April and March readings across all categories of the report. We include the sequential change and how those all rank in percentiles. As shown, breadth and levels were not too bad for current conditions whereas six-month expectations look disastrous including a handful of record lows and bottom quintile monthly declines.
To quantify the drops across those expectation categories, below we have taken a standard deviation for each category and then averaged across them. As shown, that reading dropped into negative territory this month. In the post-pandemic period, there have been a couple of other months to also see negative readings (in July and November 2022), although this current reading is considerably lower. As such, April’s reading of -0.12 is the worst since April 2020, and before that, only the Great Recession and 2001 saw weaker expectations. Likewise, the more than one standard deviation drop over the past three months marks one of the most rapid declines in expectations on record.
As noted earlier, the drop in expectations indices has led to record lows in some. That applies to new orders and shipment expectations with current condition indices for both categories also remaining in contraction. That would indicate the region’s firms have been observing softening demand, and things are only expected to get worse.
It’s not exactly a silver lining, but not every category has fallen sharply. Two categories in the upper quintile of readings with sharp moves higher in the past month were inflation-related. Prices paid and prices received are both rocketing higher in terms of current conditions and expectations. For current conditions of both categories, this was the most elevated level since August 2022. As for expectations, it was the highest level for prices paid since June 2022, and April 2022 for prices received.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Big Banks & Asset Managers
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Q1 2025 earnings calls from Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of America (BAC).
Big banks and asset managers delivered solid Q1 results despite macro and policy headwinds. Trading desks were standouts, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley hitting record equities revenue and Bank of America posting $5.6B in sales and trading revenue, its 12th straight quarter of YoY growth. FICC strength was broad, especially in FX and rates. Wealth management momentum remained strong across the board, with Morgan Stanley adding $94B in net new assets, Goldman raising $19B in alternatives, and BlackRock pulling in $84B in net inflows. Clients showed a “wait-and-see” attitude on M&A and capital markets activity, citing policy uncertainty around tariffs, regulation, and the 2025 economic outlook. Most firms trimmed their US GDP forecasts, with Goldman now expecting just 0.5% growth and BAC flagging only a “very slight recession”. Still, commercial and consumer credit performance held steady, though JPMorgan built $973M in reserves and others cited cautious provisioning. Banks continued investing in AI, digital platforms, and efficiency initiatives, with Goldman deploying AI assistants and BAC highlighting tech as a “competitive moat.”…
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Chart of the Day – VIX: One Extreme to the Other
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – It’s Over – 4/15/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The Titanic hit the iceberg not because they could not see it coming but because they could not change direction.” – Dean Devlin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s over. No, not the tariff tantrum, but the 2024 tax season. If you’ve somehow forgotten to get your taxes done (or file for an extension), you’ve got a few more hours left!
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey was invited on CNBC earlier this morning to discuss markets. You can view the clip here or by clicking on the image below.
While the S&P 500 is down 12% from its highs after making a series of lower lows, the index’s cumulative advance/decline line – which is simply a running sum of the daily number of advancers minus decliners – has held up very well. As shown below, even after the post-Liberation Day market crash, the cumulative A/D line remained above its December lows.
The Closer – Luxury Air Pocket, Rates, Consumers – 4/14/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with the earnings results of luxury goods brands (page 1) followed by a discussion surrounding the rates environment (pages 2 and 3). We also check in on volatility and auto stocks (page 3) before running through the latest NY Fed day (pages 4 and 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day: Triple Plays and Tariffs
Easter Seasonality
With all the craziness of the past few weeks, many investors could use a day off to catch their breath, and that’s what we’ll get later this week. Equity markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. So far during the season of Lent—the more than 40-day period between Ash Wednesday and Easter—markets have appeared to have given up buying. Historically, the bulk of this period (the last close before Ash Wednesday through the last close before Good Friday) has had a positive seasonal bias with an average gain of 1.83% and positive performance 67% of the time. While there are still a few days left, the 5.68% decline this year puts the S&P on pace for the fourth worst performance during Lent of all years since the start of the five-day trading week in 1953. The only years with larger declines were a 10.86% drop in 1980, a 10.82% decline in 2020, and a 5.92% decline in 2001. Again, there are still a few days left, and the elevated volatility recently could change that ranking, but we’d also note in 1994 there was a similar-sized drop to now at 5.66%.
In the chart below, we show the average daily change in the S&P 500 for each day during the holiday-shortened week in addition to Easter Monday. We also include a look at full-week performance for the week and the following week. As shown, the week of Easter has typically held a positive tone with the largest and most consistent gains coming right before the long weekend on Thursday. Monday and Tuesday, on the other hand, have seen the S&P 500 fall more often than not. Regardless, for the full span of “Holy Week”, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.66% gain with positive returns just under two-thirds of the time. After coming back from the holiday, stocks haven’t tended to continue rallying. Easter Monday has averaged a decline of 16 bps with positive performance less than half of the time. Once again though, the full week after Easter has seen the S&P 500 generally trade higher.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/14/25 – Exempted (Maybe)
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Concentration is that ability to not think about anything.” – Pete Rose
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you were hoping that April’s volatility would calm down this week, you will have to wait at least another day. However, bulls will find today’s volatility to be much more tolerable since it’s to the upside. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open over 1% higher while treasury yields are lower, crude oil is higher, and gold is marginally lower. It’s a much more ‘normal’ picture this morning than many days we saw last week. Friday evening’s news that smartphones, semis, and other electronics would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs has tech stocks flying, and nowhere is the strength more notable than in Apple (AAPL), which is trading up over 5% in the premarket.
Talk about a roller coaster. After peaking just after Christmas, shares of AAPL lost more than a third of their value in less than four months and have since recovered more than 23% when you consider this morning’s gains. Volatility of this magnitude is notable when it occurs in just about any stock, but this is the largest company in the world we’re talking about. Are we really to believe that the company’s value has fluctuated by this magnitude in such a short period?
With today’s 5% rally in the pre-market, AAPL is on track for its second straight daily gain of over 4%. Since the iPod was launched in 2001, the only other time the stock had a higher number of consecutive 4%+ daily moves was in October 2008 when there were three in a row. The current streak of back-to-back gains, if it holds, would be the first such streak since coming out of the Financial Crisis, but before that, they were common as the market cap was much lower.
