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“What the eyes see and the ears hear, the mind believes.” – Harry Houdini

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US equity futures are getting a boost this morning after news broke over the weekend that the Trump administration is planning on narrowing the scope of its planned tariff implementation on April 2nd.  As of 8 AM ET, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was trading up 1.24% in the pre-market.  If the gains hold, today will be the first time we’ve had a 1%+ opening gap higher on a Monday morning since October 17th, 2022!

Over the last ten years, there have been exactly twenty Monday morning gaps up of at least 1%.  (Today would be the 21st.)  On average, SPY has continued higher by another 0.17% from the open to the close on these strong Monday opens, and we’ve seen open to close gains 70% of the time.  Only once (10/29/18) have we seen SPY finish the day in the red after starting the week with a 1%+ gap up.