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“The world in which we live is collapsing and may be nearing the breaking point,” – Pope Francis
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Maybe US markets should have followed the US lead and stayed closed for Easter today. US futures are sharply lower to kick off the week as investors face the uncertainty of US economic, trade, and monetary policy. There’s always uncertainty, but investors have a lot to contend with right now as there has been little evidence of progress on trade deals with the 70+ countries eager to “make a deal”, heightened concerns over the Fed’s independence, and how these policies will impact the economy. And, oh yeah, we’re just getting into the peak of earnings season.
Outside of the equity market, long-term treasury yields are modestly higher, the dollar is lower, and gold is surging. Even Bitcoin is starting to show signs of life as dollar weakness becomes more ingrained into global markets.
It may have been a short week, but US stocks still found a way to fall last week, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5%. While the index declined, five sectors finished the week higher, and only three – Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services – underperformed the S&P 500. Overall, the eleven S&P 500 sectors had an average change of 0.00%, which was much better than the index itself.
Since 1990, it hasn’t been particularly common to see such a wide disparity between the weekly performance of the S&P 500 and the average performance of its sectors. Last week was just the 19th time that the S&P 500 fell more than 1%, and the average sector’s performance was either positive or less than a decline of 0.5%. In the chart below of the S&P 500, we have included a red dot to indicate each occurrence.
From 1990 through 1998, there was never a single weekly occurrence, but from 1999 through 2000, there were eight separate occurrences. Since then, the occurrences have been relatively spread out, the most recent being in March and April 2022. The fact that most of the prior occurrences came in 1999, 2000, and 2022 can be explained by the fact that those were other periods where there was a high level of concentration in the market, and more specifically in the Technology sector. When one sector has such a large weight in the overall index, it creates a backdrop where one sector can have a big impact on the index itself, even as other sectors hold up relatively well.
