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“Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class and be humble.” – John Madden

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After one of the largest one-day gains in market history yesterday, we’re giving back some of the gains this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open 1.75% lower while the Nasdaq is down 2%. European stocks are surging with the STOXX 600 up over 5%, and in Asia overnight, the Nikkei was up over 9% while China saw more muted gains.

We just got March CPI, and the headline and core readings were weaker than expected. Headline CPI dropped 0.1% while core CPI increased just 0.1% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%.  In recent history, this report would send futures sharply higher, but given the looming tariffs, the markets may view it as somewhat stale. Jobless claims were right in line with expectations, ending a streak of five better-than-expected reports. Given concerns over the economy, initial claims have been contained.

As big as yesterday’s move was in the S&P 500, it’s crazy to think that it is still down over 3.5% since last Wednesday’s close and well below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages.

In terms of where various sectors are trading relative to their short-term trading ranges, nine out of eleven are still at oversold levels (1+ standard deviations below their 50-DMAs), and that accounts for yesterday’s big gains!

In yesterday’s session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded in an incredible intraday range of 10.8%. Even crazier is that on Tuesday, the intraday range was 7.3% while Monday’s range was 8.6%!  Since SPY was launched in 1993, the last three days represent just the sixth time that the ETF has had an intraday range of more than 5% for three or more days. The only periods with as many or more consecutive intraday ranges of at least 5% were in the fourth quarter of 2008 (four separate occurrences) and March 2020. These levels of sustained volatility are truly historic.