Bespoke Report – 11/8/24 – Election Rotation

To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we focus on the rotation in stocks under the hood of this week’s post-election equity market rally. We also review earnings season results, economic activity in China, US economic data, market sentiment indicators, and much more in this week’s report.

Election Week 2024 Recap

The S&P 500 came into this week having its best Election Year through October since 1936, and the gains have only continued with SPY currently up another 4.7% week-to-date.  Below is a helpful look at the performance of various asset classes this week using our “Key ETF Matrix,” which also includes year-to-date and bull market total returns.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slightly outperformed SPY this week, but it’s the small-cap Russell 2,000 (IWM) that’s done the best of the major index ETFs with a gain of 8.22%.  Small-caps outperformed mid-caps this week, which themselves outperformed large-caps.  Generally speaking, growth outperformed value, although small-cap value (IJS) is doing much better than large-cap growth.

Looking at sectors, Financials, Energy, and Industrials were the best-performing sectors on the day after the election, but Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is now the best-performing sector of the week with a gain of 7.44%.  Consumer Discretionary has Tesla (TSLA) to thank for its big gain since the stock was up 30% this week and has re-joined the “Trillion Dollar Market Cap” club.  On the flip side, the two most defensive sectors — Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) — have seen the smallest bounce of the major sectors with gains of roughly 1%.

International stock market ETFs traded on US exchanges did not participate in the post-election rally.  The MSCI All-World ex-US ETF (CWI) was only up 16 basis points on the week as of Friday afternoon, and European country ETFs like France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) were all down more than 1%.  Commodity ETFs didn’t do much either, with the broad commodity ETF (DBC) up just 0.6% and both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) solidly red.

The outperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world has pushed Bloomberg’s index showing US market cap as a share of world market cap to its highest level this century at 49.5%.  You can see this week’s bounce in US market share in the chart below:

With markets up so much this week, things have quickly gotten extended.  As shown below in the snapshot of key index ETFs from our Trend Analyzer tool, all of them are currently trading more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages, which we call “extreme overbought” territory.

As of mid-day Friday, the average Russell 3,000 stock was up 6.7% on the week.  Roughly 30% of stocks in the index were up more than 10% on the week, 177 stocks were up more than 20%, and 15 stocks surged more than 50%.  Below is a look at the 15 stocks up 50%+ on the week.

Most of the stocks up 50%+ shown above are small-caps, so below is a look at the 25 best-performing stocks this week with market caps of more than $10 billion:

Given Elon Musk’s very vocal campaign to help President Trump win re-election, it should come as no surprise that Tesla (TSLA) reacted positively to Trump’s victory.  Back in late April, TSLA was down more than 40% year-to-date, but it has now rallied more than 120% off its lows and is up 28% YTD.  As shown below, TSLA shares are up 30% since Tuesday’s close before that night’s election results.

Tesla’s move this week allows it to re-join the “Trillion Dollar Market Cap” club along with Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVIDIA (NVDA).  Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) also joined that club Friday with a market cap right at the trillion-dollar mark.  As shown below, early 2022 was the last time TSLA had a $1+ trillion market cap.

Another insane move this week has been in a little-known closed-end fund called the Destiny Tech 100 (DXYZ).  DXYZ has surged 170% since Tuesday’s close, which puts it 465% above its net asset value (NAV)!  Why, you may ask?  Well, DXYZ owns stakes in private companies, the biggest of those being SpaceX.  On Destiny’s website, it shows SpaceX making up just over 37% of the fund.  We recommend reading this Morningstar article to learn more about DXYZ.  This is NOT something to mess around with unless you have extensive knowledge about closed-end funds and how they work.  We are simply highlighting its move as an example of some of the craziness that has gone on in markets since Election Day.

In addition to Tesla (TSLA) and DXYZ, the two main private prison stocks — Geo Group (GEO) and Corecivic (CXW) — have also seen huge buying since Tuesday, with GEO up 67% and CXW up 64%.  These two companies make their money housing prisoners and illegal aliens for local, state, and federal agencies.  With crime, immigration, and the border on top of President-elect Trump’s to-do list, investors are betting that GEO and CXW stand to benefit.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/8/24 – Mixed Pictures

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Commonplaces never become tiresome. It is we who become tired when we cease to be curious and appreciative.” Norman Rockwell

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

US equities paused for a water break this morning as futures trade with a modestly negative bias and yields decline. For all the talk about how a Trump victory would cause a leg higher rin interest rates, the 10-year yield has basically gone nowhere since Monday’s close. International markets are mostly lower as China declined 1% following disappointing news regarding the hoped-for stimulus measures. Crude oil is also following equities lower, but Bitcoin is modestly higher trading right near all-time highs. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM.

The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows where major US index ETFs closed yesterday relative to their trading ranges. Talk about extreme! All 14 of the ETFs listed closed at ‘extreme’ overbought levels (2+ standard deviations above their 50-DMA) yesterday, and each one was up by a minimum of 4.5% over the last week with small and micro-cap related index ETFs up by nearly twice that. It’s been quite a race as every index ETF looks to sprint to the front of the pack.

These moves are a bull’s best friend and usually a hallmark of a strong market, but momentum like this is unsustainable. Just as you can’t start a marathon with a sprint, the market will run out of gas sooner if it doesn’t properly pace itself. It can’t keep sprinting at an intense pace of multi-percentage points per week without tweaking something. It’s natural to have at least a pause, so set your expectations accordingly, and don’t get greedy.

While things look extremely uniform at the index level, sector performance has shown much more dispersion. As shown in the snapshot below, three sectors posted declines over the last five trading days. While six sectors closed yesterday at overbought levels, three finished the day in oversold territory (Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care), so the gains have been much less uniform beneath the surface.

The Closer – FOMC, Voter Swings, New Highs – 11/7/24

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with commentary on the FOMC decision (page 1) followed by a look into the surge in net new 52-week highs for the S&P 500 (page 2).  We then review the latest earnings (page 3) and finish with a review of election turnout (page 4).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 earnings reporting periods.

Q3 2024 Recaps:

Amazon: Q3 2024


Apple: Q4 2024


Microsoft: Q1 2025


Meta Platforms: Q3 2024


Alphabet: Q3 2024


Tesla: Q3 2024


General Dynamics: Q3 2024


Coca-Cola: Q3 2024


Stride: Q1 2025


Sherwin-Williams: Q3 2024


American Express: Q3 2024


General Motors: Q3 2024


Philip Morris: Q3 2024


Netflix: Q3 2024


Taiwan Semiconductor: Q3 2024


ASML: Q3 2024


Big Banks (JPM, WFC, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q3 2024


Delta Air Lines: Q3 2024


Micron: Q4 2024


Cintas: Q1 2025


Lennar: Q3 2024


FedEx: Q1 2025


Adobe: Q3 2024


RH: Q2 2024


Oracle: Q1 2025

Q2 2024 Recaps:

Broadcom: Q3 2024
AeroVironment: Q1 2025
GitLab: Q2 2025
Dick’s Sporting Goods: Q2 2024
NVIDIA: Q2 2025
CAVA: Q2 2024
Williams-Sonoma: Q2 2024
Walmart: Q2 2025
Home Depot: Q2 2024
Builders FirstSource: Q2 2024
Caterpillar: Q2 2024
Celsius: Q2 2024
Palantir: Q2 2024
First Solar: Q2 2024
Apple: Q3 2024
Mondelez International: Q2 2024
Meta Platforms: Q2 2024
Microsoft: Q4 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q2 2024
McDonald’s: Q2 2024
EMCOR: Q2 2024
Royal Caribbean: Q2 2024
Chipotle: Q2 2024
General Dynamics: Q2 2024
Tesla: Q2 2024
Alphabet: Q2 2024
General Motors: Q2 2024
NXPI Semiconductors: Q2 2024
American Express: Q2 2024
Netflix: Q2 2024
DR Horton: Q3 2024
Blackstone: Q2 2024
ASML: Q2 2024
JB Hunt: Q2 2024
Big Banks (JPM, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q2 2024
Delta Air Lines: Q2 2024
PepsiCo: Q2 2024
McCormick: Q2 2024
AeroVironment: Q4 2024
FedEx: Q4 2024
Lennar & KB Home: Q2 2024
RH: Q1 2024
Adobe: Q2 2024
Broadcom: Q2 2024
Oracle: Q4 2024
Lululemon: Q1 2024
Costco: Q3 2024

 

Recaps published during Q3 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 11/7/24

The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis.  There were 10 changes to the list this week.

The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription.  With Bespoke Premium, you’ll receive a number of daily market updates from us along with our weekly newsletter and a portion of our investor tools.  With Bespoke Institutional, you’ll receive everything that’s included with Premium plus additional daily macro analysis and more stock-specific research.

To see all 50 stocks that currently make up the Bespoke 50, simply start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.

The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results.  The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted.  Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication.  Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price.  Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%.  Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.  It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs.  As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities.  Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking.  Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

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