Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 1/23/25
Chart of the Day: The General Electric Comeback
Sentiment Swing
The S&P 500 has continued to press higher in the past week including attempts to push up to new highs in the past couple of sessions. As a result, sentiment has taken a bullish turn and has done so in dramatic fashion. As shown below, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey has seen big swings in bullish sentiment over the past few weeks. Starting in early December, bullish sentiment fell six weeks in a row culminating with only a quarter of respondents reporting as bullish last week. In this week’s survey, 43.4% of respondents reported as bullish. In a single week, that entirely erases the past month and a half’s drop as bullishness has rebounded ot the highest level since December 5th.
Former bulls had to go somewhere, and the recent decline in bullish sentiment resulted in bearish sentiment rising from a low of 30% at the start of December to a high of 40.6% last week. As for this week, bears fell back down below 30% for the first time since the week of November 14.
Given those readings in bulls and bears, last week the bull-bear spread was negative (meaning there were more bears than bulls) to the widest extent since November 2023. The rapid turnaround in sentiment resulted in this spread rising back up to 14.0 per the latest data. As with bullish sentiment, that is the highest reading since early December.
One thing to factor into this massive turnaround in sentiment is the S&P 500’s return to record highs. As might be expected, historically sentiment leans much more bullish when the index is closer to a new high. In the chart below, we show the average reading in the bull-bear spread throughout the history of the survey dependent on how far the S&P 500 is trading below a 52-week high. As shown, the bull-bear spread has averaged dramatically more bullish readings when trading at 52-week highs and has likewise leaned positive only when the index was at least within a few percentage points of a new high; as is the case presently. That means the big swing towards bullishness is notable but maybe not exactly surprising with the S&P 500 returning to its highs.
While the context of where the S&P 500 is trading versus previous highs is important, that shouldn’t steal the thunder from just how big of a move sentiment had this week. The chart below shows the week-over-week change in the bull-bear spread over the past two decades. As shown, this latest 29.2 percentage point jump is the largest since November 2023, and prior to that, every other such large move higher came before 2010!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: MarineMax (HZO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers MarineMax’s (HZO) Q1 2025 earnings call.
MarineMax (HZO) is the world’s largest recreational boat and yacht retailer. You may be familiar with brands like Sea Ray, Azimut, and Boston Whaler. The company operates a network of retail locations, marinas, and service facilities, serving affluent customers in the US and globally. HZO offers not only boats but also high-margin services like financing, insurance, brokerage, and access to luxury marina memberships. The company’s premium positioning and focus on high-value customers provide insights into the health of the luxury recreational market. HZO reported revenue down 11% in same-store sales due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Florida, a key market, accounted for the majority of the decline. Despite a nearly $60 million drop in revenue, gross margins held at an impressive 36%, thanks to strength in higher-margin segments like marinas, superyacht services, and brokerage. Inventory levels rose, driven by softer-than-expected December sales, but promotional efforts during winter boat shows aim to address this. The company remains cautiously optimistic, expecting unit sales to remain flat for fiscal 2025 but sees upside as geopolitical clarity and consumer confidence improve in the spring. HZO shares jumped more than 15% on 1/23…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for HZO by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Union Pacific (UNP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Union Pacific’s (UNP) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Union Pacific (UNP) is one of North America’s largest freight railroads, operating a network spanning 23 states in the western two-thirds of the US. The company moves goods critical to the economy, including agricultural products, energy resources, industrial materials, and consumer goods. In Q4, UNP closed on a high note with a record 58% adjusted operating ratio, reflecting gains in workforce productivity (+6%) and train length (+1%). Renewable diesel growth accelerated with two new plants coming online, while grain exports to Mexico climbed due to a strong harvest. Intermodal volumes rose 26%, driven by West Coast imports, though challenges loom for coal (-4%) and international intermodal in 2025. Management discussed a mixed macro-outlook with concerns over tariffs, regulatory shifts, and GDP growth deceleration. UNP missed on the top line as revenue declined less than 1% YoY while beating EPS estimates, which rose 7.4% YoY. The stock was up about 4.5% on 1/23 during AM trading hours…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for UNP by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/23/25 – Europe Outperforming YTD
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The more people who own little businesses of their own, the safer our country will be, and the better off its cities and towns; for the people who have a stake in their country and their community are its best citizens.” – John Hancock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a shaky start to the year, US equities have more than stabilized over the last two weeks, and whether you’re talking about small caps with the Russell 2000 or large caps like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the major averages are sitting on YTD gains of over 3%. Not bad for just over three weeks! You might be surprised to hear, though, that even with those strong performance numbers, European stocks are modestly outperforming the US on a MTD basis. After accounting for the impact of currency moves, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) is already up over 4.7% YTD.
It’s been a good start to the year for European shares, but they still have a lot of work to do. While the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 have all been in well-defined uptrends, the same can’t be said for VGK which has been stuck in a downtrend since last fall. Not only does it remain in a rut of lower highs and lower lows, but it also isn’t even trading above its 200-DMA.
The Closer – Eggs, Earnings, Yield Curve – 1/22/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into egg and meat prices (page 1 and 2). We also check in on the yield curve (page 2) followed by a dive into the latest earnings (page 3). We finish with a recap of today’s 20-year bond reopening (page 4).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/22/25
Chart of the Day – Streaky Breadth
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Netflix (NFLX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Netflix’s (NFLX) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Netflix (NFLX) is the world’s leading streaming entertainment service with a library of popular films, TV shows, and original content. NFLX has more than 300 million paid memberships across 190+ countries, but still says it has only captured less than 1% of TV viewing worldwide. Known for hit series like Stranger Things and Squid Game and its growing library of blockbuster films, NFLX is continually innovating with live programming, gaming, and a growing ad-supported tier. This quarter, the company achieved a record 19 million paid net additions in Q4, fueled by a new season of Squid Game and Christmas Day NFL games. The ad-supported tier now accounts for 55% of new signups in ad markets, doubling revenue YoY. NFLX is also expanding live programming, securing FIFA Women’s World Cup rights for 2027 and 2031. NFLX opened more than 16% higher on 1/22 after beating estimates and eclipsing $10 billion in revenues for the first time ever in a quarter. The quotes below are from the company’s earnings call and prepared shareholder letter…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for NFLX by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: