Aug 5, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
One of the surprise TV hits of the summer has been FX’s dark comedy The Bear, set in a struggling Chicago family restaurant beset with chaos, dysfunction, baggage, and drama. The show is an ode to work: the feel of walking into the kitchen on too little sleep, the staccato ring of a sharp knife prepping vegetables, the deep umami smell of a tended sauté pan, the gorgeous sheen of carefully frosted cakes, and the taste of a pile of family meal spaghetti. But it’s also an ode to dysfunction: fights between cousins and siblings, tragic suicides, drug abuse as a coping method, screaming at coworkers and friends, self sabotage and the sabotage of fellow chefs, or violent altercations in the workplace. The US economy and financial markets have been through a period of enormous dysfunction: manic highs in 2021 as policy stimulus and a surge in retail risk taking eventually gave way to a brutal bear market that has covered at least the first half of 2022, while the economy has bounced-back admirably from the COVID shock despite ongoing conflicts over labor supply, supply chain performance, geopolitical shocks to commodity markets, and the presence of the FOMC ever-ready to snuff out the expansion. Like The Bear’s protagonist, Carmine Berzatto, the FOMC has been tasked with keeping a fundamentally unstable situation on an even keel. Instead of struggling to pay vendors, re-organize the staff, optimize the menu, and manage utter chaos on an interpersonal level, the FOMC has had to balance strong growth in aggregate demand, high inflation, a large balance sheet, and supply-side disruptions. In The Bear, Carmine’s journey is both helped and hindered by his new hire Sydney, a woman hired to help manage the kitchen and re-orient strategy. In 2022, Sydney is playing the role of a Congress that has both helped ward off the worst outcomes (economic collapse) but hasn’t moved as fast or been as nimble as the protagonist ultimately needs. Despite being on its own learning curve, this week, Congress passed a taxation and spending bill that will boost investment in decarbonized energy, following passage last week of a bill that will generate significant semiconductors capex. The deeply divided Congress isn’t always working in perfect sync with the Fed, but the chaotic relationship ultimately does more harm than good for both. Ultimately, the FOMC is just as human in its foibles as Carmine Berzatto in The Bear: the central dramatic suspense of the show (whether Berzatto will close the restaurant…no spoilers from us!) is equally present in the question of whether the FOMC will halt what could be an unprecedented inflationary boom in favor of ‘closing the joint down’. Only time will tell, with investors left to guess just as viewers were whether the enigmatic protagonist will persevere or take the easy route out with predictable—if dysfunctional—results. We discuss all of the aspects of The “Bear-zatto” market and much more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jul 29, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q3 2022.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page two of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page three and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
Jul 22, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
This week’s Bespoke Report covers everything in the markets this week from the weaker economic numbers to the early indication for this earnings season. We also looked at the significance of some key technical events this week as well as what to expect from the FOMC ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. To read all about it these events as well as the latest Technical, Sentiment, Historical, and Fundamental trends make sure to check out this week’s report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jul 15, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Earnings started this week, offering updates from corporate America as economic data and macroeconomic policy points towards a looming recession. Commodity prices have continued on their recent declines, while interest rates have been torn between growth concerns and a Fed that feels pressed to do more amidst high inflation. While consumer and producer prices this week we higher than expected, inflation expectations fell and presented a challenge to how the FOMC will communicate its plans for July rates policy amidst broadening core inflation, falling gasoline prices, volatile expectations numbers from consumer surveys, and big declines for market-based measures. We also discuss growth in China, retail sales data, Canada’s own 100 bps tightening this week, Italian political drama, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jul 8, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
In this week’s Bespoke Report, we’ve recapped today’s nonfarm payrolls report, provided an update on inflation trends, taken a look at sector breadth and internals, previewed the upcoming earnings season, and highlighted the recent price action in mega-caps and uber-growth stocks. To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jul 1, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
“Been dazed and confused for so long, it’s not true…Lotsa people talkin’, few of them know…Don’t know where you’re going, only know just where you’ve been…” – Dazed and Confused, Led Zeppelin
We can’t think of many songs that better encapsulate 2022, but if you can, let us know. Confusing has been an understatement as investors are faced with a barrage of back-and-forth moves and policy decisions that would make most fair-minded people scratch their heads. Despite the cross-currents, we hear a lot of confidence from both sides about what will go down in the second half, but even in normal times, let alone one of the trickiest economic backdrops any of us have ever experienced, few of them know.
There’s a lot to cover in this week’s Bespoke Report, including the horrible first half and what it might mean for the second half, the state of the economy and inflation, a preview of earnings season and the midterm elections, a look at consumer sentiment, and much more. To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
